What do the people who study these things (diseases, economics, politics, society) think may be coming?
Thinking through the holidays this year “This is what my little family is doing this holiday season to stay healthy and enjoy time with our loved ones. I hope it’s useful.” “Goal 1: Protect the vulnerable ... Goal 2: Limit disruptons ... Other considerations ...” Katelyn Jetelina, Your Local Epidemiologist YourLocalEpidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affairs-102622-triple-threat
pub 3 nov 2022
Will pre-pandemic behaviour ever return? "Our global normalcy index suggests that some changes are here to stay" "Globally, retail footfall is now above pre-pandemic norms, and time spent outside the home is near normal too, as people venture out again. "Yet working from home is now commonplace. Even if infections fall and injections rise, our model suggests office occupancy will not rise much further—and cinema attendance will reach only about 80% of its pre-pandemic level. Some changes are here to stay." -- James Fransham
8 nov 2021https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/will-pre-pandemic-behaviour-ever-return What will happen with Covid in 2022?? There's SO much we don't know about Omicron and the future of Covid. I outline 12 questions and reveal how we can avoid Covid dominating our lives in 2022. Here we go! 1/thread Basically - Questions: we don't really know. How: vaccinate, mask, be careful. -- Dr. Tom Frieden @DrTomFrieden 25 dec 2021 https://mobile.twitter.com/DrTomFrieden/status/1474491754967711745 What about a Double Pandemic? COVID-19 has steamrolled the country. What happens if another pandemic starts before this one is over? Written in early days, but still relevant -- many good points. -- Ed Yong 15 jul 2020 The Atlantic https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/double-pandemic-covid-flu/614152/ What to expect in year three of the pandemic "New antibody and antiviral treatments, and better vaccines, are on the way" 8 nov 2021 The Economist https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/what-to-expect-in-year-three-of-the-pandemic How we live with the Coronavirus forever "We can't avoid the virus for the rest of our lives, but we can minimize its impact." 17 aug 2021 The Atlantic https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/08/how-we-live-coronavirus-forever/619783/ Double dose may offer protection for a year or more; global Covid surge was expected -- WHO chief scientist Dr Soumya Swaminathan 16 nov 2021 https://www.news18.com/news/india/double-vaccine-dose-should-suffice-for-a-year-who-chief-swaminathan-says-global-covid-case-surge-likely-4446860.html I want y'all to let go of the idea of "going back to normalâ€. Weâ€™re witnessing a MAJOR transition in human history. Ainâ€™t nothing to go back to, so either face reality or get left behind. -- daravonn 27 oct 2021 https://mobile.twitter.com/daravonn/status/1453347374638764032 Many say Covid-19 will transition â€˜from epidemic to endemicâ€™. But what does this mean? Means the disease "occurs at a fairly steady level without dying away and without major flare-ups. Doesn't mean not dangerous or deadly. The four coronaviruses of the common cold is endemic, but also is malaria. "there is broad consensus that eradication of the virus is looking unlikely." Vaccines? In the case of smallpox, vaccine keeps you from even catching it. Getting Covid disease or vaccine makes infection less deadly, but doesn't keep you from catching it. "Even if some region does achieve elimination for a while, the question is whether it will be able to keep the virus out forever in an interconnected world." "Endemicity could well mean low levels of disease in richer countries thanks to lower population density and periodic booster shots, and higher levels in poorer ones." -- Murad Banaji 19 oct 2021 https://scroll.in/pulse/1007845/many-say-covid-19-will-transition-from-epidemic-to-endemic-but-what-does-this-mean Is America prepared for the pandemic after COVID-19? No. "This one is far from over, but the window to prepare for future threats is closing fast." "Germ theory allowed people to collapse everything about disease into battles between pathogens and patients. Social matters such as inequality, housing, education, race, culture, psychology, and politics became irrelevancies." -- Ed Yong 29 sep 2021 The Atlantic https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/america-prepared-next-pandemic/620238/ Delta has changed the pandemic endgame "Cases of COVID-19 are rising fast. Vaccine uptake has plateaued. The pandemic will be over one day â€” but the way there is different now." -- Ed Yong 12 aug 2021 The Atlantic https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has-changed-pandemic-endgame/619726/ The long goodbye to covid-19 The pandemic is still far from over, but glimpses of its legacy are emerging "... three shifts: the collective threat prompts a growth in state power; the overturning of everyday life leads to a search for meaning; and the closeness of death which brings caution while the disease rages, spurs audacity when it has passed." -- Nicholas Christakis, _Apollo's Arrow_ 3 jul 2021 The Economist https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/07/03/the-long-goodbye-to-covid-19